After reading the latest article posted in the Statesman about permits increasing in most local markets, the news paints a very confused picture. The market that should be the fastest pace, the one where lot and building prices are lowest, posted the largest drop in permit applications. Kuna should have been the highest paced market due to the price differential between the surrounding towns, but it posted the biggest slide? That doesn't make a lot of sense unless there is some unforeseen force in the market dictating this.
Projections from major national sources indicate that without the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit prices will drop somewhere between 10-15% in the Boise area, depending on what rates do. If they go up then you can expect a higher percentage of reduction in the price of homes. To the head of the Nampa Department of Building Safety indicates that permits have increased in the second quarter, and that that shows the bottom has been reached. If only.
Steve Hasson from Kuna City Planning and Zoning is convinced that developers are going to step in and assume major projects that have been taken back from other developers by banks. This seems to me to be an ill-conceived notion since the developers and builders would have to provide a product that can be financed with compatible appraisals and can out compete the tremendous values in the REO market right now. This is an extremely difficult task and people that have a lot of money are known for making smart decisions, not foolish ones.
The bottom line is, until Idahoans can find steady employment that yields enough money to justify buying a home, or land, then what can a half way observant person expect? A continuation of a depressed market pace and years of stagnation if the current problems are not addressed, that is what.
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